Why Most AI Startups Will Fail by 2027
The AI gold rush is ending. 90% of AI startups will fail by 2027 due to commoditized infrastructure, no differentiation, and the gap between demos and production. The warning signs are already here....
Hard-won lessons from 45+ years in the trenches.
No optimism theater What actually works
The AI gold rush is ending. 90% of AI startups will fail by 2027 due to commoditized infrastructure, no differentiation, and the gap between demos and production. The warning signs are already here....
Entry-level software engineering positions have dropped 60% since 2022. A Harvard study found companies cut junior hiring before AI can replace those roles....
Test coverage metrics measure code execution, not verification. High coverage with weak assertions is worse than lower coverage with strong assertions - it provides false confidence....
From programming at age 7, to seeing the world in the Navy, to running 3,000+ AWS instances. A journey through four decades of building systems, patents, and startups....
Government procurement is maddening. Security requirements are exhaustive. The pace is glacial. But when your software helps rescue people at sea, you understand why it has to be this way....
A contrarian defense of Make (1976) over modern JavaScript build tools. Make is boring, understood, and still works. Modern tools are complex, break often, and solve problems Make already solved....
Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by 2027. The reasons are predictable: unclear ROI, agent washing, and deployments without governance....
PostgreSQL dominates the 2025 StackOverflow survey with 55.6% market share. It's not hype - it's decades of reliability, extensibility, and solving real problems without creating new ones....
METR's randomized controlled trial found experienced developers are 19% slower with AI coding tools. The twist: they believed they were 20% faster....
AI coding assistants are stateless. They don't remember your architectural decisions, past bugs, or team conventions. This creates a specific kind of technical debt—code that looks correct but violate...
The AI boom created a GPU shortage that's reshaping how companies think about compute access and infrastructure....
Direct experience running 3,000+ AWS instances. Hidden costs (egress, support tiers), optimization strategies, and why 78% of companies waste 21-50% of their cloud spend....
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